What is scenario analysis? Sensitivity Analysis. In comparison, counties that used paper ballots scanned by computers at voting places (in order to give voters a chance to correct their ballot if it had an error) had just 1 in 200 uncountable ballots. "[4] A physical mark on a ballot, at or near a designated target, is such an indication. Also note that the standard deviation is 55.3% with a 95% confidence interval between -2.1% and 29.7%. Orange County then performed a hand segregation and determined that these votes numbered 184 for Bush, 249 for Gore and 79 for other candidates. JPM is currently trading at a "Buy" range for long-term focused dividend investors. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. The Court further held that it had "considerable uncertainty" as to the reasons given by the Florida Supreme Court for its decision. Is this happening to you frequently? JPM is a dividend contender and a large firm that is embedded into American businesses making it an ideal candidate. The Sensitivity Analysis shows that as the growth rate declines given a constant return expectation, the purchase price decreases for JPM. Fig. Furthermore, the number of undervotes correlates with how well the punch-card machines are maintained, and not with factors such as race or socioeconomic status. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. Combining this with a Monte Carlo simulation allows for a virtual representation of future outcomes. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. There were two write-in candidates for president who had been qualified by the state of Florida. Salvado says that this alone cost Gore the election. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Scenario analysis is sometimes confused with sensitivity analysis. The NORC study (see below) did not address either of the concerns about overseas absentee ballots and Nassau County's certification change, as their effects were already included in the baseline totals. Dividend investors can specifically focus on decreasing their risk by increasing their return expectation and estimating future dividend growth conservatively. Asked how many votes he would guess Buchanan legitimately received in Palm Beach County, he said, "I think 1,000 would be generous. At 4:00p.m. EST on December 8, the Florida Supreme Court, by a 4 to 3 vote, rejected Gore's original four-county approach and ordered a manual recount, under the supervision of the Leon County Circuit Court and Leon County Elections Supervisor Ion Sancho, of all undervoted ballots in all Florida counties (except Broward, Palm Beach and Volusia) and the portion of Miami-Dade county in which such a recount was not already complete. Please. Fortunately, with statistical models and conservative assumptions, investors can increase their likelihood of success. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and Since its low in 2010, JPM shareholders have experienced exceptional dividend growth into the present times which has helped strengthen a reputation as a reputable dividend firm for investors and is well showcased in the Seeking Alpha Dividend Grade. A Sensitivity Analysis allows for investors to select their "Buy" price from their own assumptions. It is important to observe these historical trends and note that the business of JPM has altered and developed over this representation of time. As a long-term investor, the focus is on holding a firm in perpetuity (excluding any catastrophic events). Sensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. The decision was extremely controversial due to its partisan split and the majority's unusual instruction that its judgment in Bush v. Gore should not set precedent but should be "limited to the present circumstances". Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in the model input (Saltelli, 2002). Orange County presented fewer rejected ballots to the NORC than expected. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. As an example, an investor who normally expects a 6% return may expect a 7% return as a Margin of Safety and change their purchase price accordingly. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. One thing to note, scenario analysis is not the same as sensitivity analysis! Bush led the election-night vote count in Florida by 1,784 votes. All were among 10,310 undervotes in the county. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. The intent of this article is to value JPM for long-term dividend focused investors. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. In such case, only the write-in vote is void." Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be We can utilize a Sensitivity Analysis combined with a Gordon Growth Model to determine purchase prices (Figure 11). JPM annual dividend growth rate - Scenario 1 (Author). More than 20% of ballots in black precincts of Duval County were rejected because of votes for president on each page. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated Sauls also rejected Gore's contest of the election result on December 4, and Gore appealed that decision too. The tabulated data shows the purchase price of JPM stock needed given an expected dividend growth rate and the investors desired return. The Scenario 2 data shows a much closer mean and median growth rate which are 7.12% and 5.56% respectively. JPM is known as a dividend contender meaning it has increased its dividend every year for the past 10 years. Following the machine recount, the Gore campaign requested a manual recount in four counties. 2A). Scenario analysis makes assumptions about multiple variables and factors for possible future scenarios and looks at how each would affect the business. Scenario Analysis vs. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be Due to the narrow margin of the original vote count, Florida Election Code 102.141 mandated a statewide machine recount,[5] which began the day after the election. It utilizes a constant cash flow (dividend), an expected growth rate (shown in the dividend growth rate summary), and the investors expected return to derive a purchase price for a position (Figure 10). To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. ", "COUNTING THE VOTE: DUVAL COUNTY; Democrats Rue Ballot Foul-Up In a 2nd County", "Panhandle Poll Follow-up: Networks' Wrong Florida Call for Gore Depressed Voter Turnout in Florida's Central Time Zone", "TV Guide Network's "25 Biggest TV Blunders" Special Delivers 3.3 Million Viewers and Becomes #1 Rated Special Among Women 25-54 [via press release from TV Guide Network]", "Letter to Senator Patrick Leahy, Chairman, U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary", "Examining the Vote; How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote", "COUNTING THE VOTE: THE ABSENTEE BALLOTS; Review Military Votes, Florida Attorney General Says", "Lieberman Put Democrats In Retreat on Military Vote", "NAACP and Florida Voters Reach Agreement with ChoicePoint in Voting Rights Lawsuit: ChoicePoint to Make Donation to NAACP and Reprocess Voter Exception List", "Study of disputed Florida ballots finds justices did not cast the deciding vote", "Miami 'Riot' Squad: Where Are They Now? On December 4, the Court ordered the Florida Supreme Court to clarify its ruling that had extended the certification date. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. In addition, some counties had provided an extra 432 total ballots, while others produced 1333 fewer ballots than expected. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and Conservative writer Andrew Sullivan in a contemporaneous article:[61]. But theres a key difference. 5.1 Sensitivity. The simulation also showed a 52.28% probability for a positive integer meaning that it is a slightly positive probability that JPM increases their dividend based off this model. "[51], Although Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer said on November 9 that "Palm Beach County is a Pat Buchanan stronghold and that's why Pat Buchanan received 3,407 votes there",[52] Buchanan's Florida coordinator, Jim McConnell, responded by calling that "nonsense", and Jim Cunningham, chairman of the executive committee of Palm Beach County's Reform Party, responded, "I don't think so. Regarding the first issue, the court ruled that, while Harris was generally entitled to deference in her interpretation of state laws, in this case the interpretation "contravene[d] the plain meaning" of the phrase "error in the vote tabulation" and so must be overturned. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. We have to believe that based on the vote totals elsewhere. Negative sign indicates number of votes that decision caused to be excluded from state certified total. A larger consortium of news organizations, including USA Today, The Miami Herald, Knight Ridder, The Tampa Tribune, and five other newspapers next conducted a full recount of all machine-rejected ballots, including both undervotes and overvotes. The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). That first day's results reduced the margin to just over 900 votes. Based on the review of these ballots, their results indicated that Bush would have won if certain recounting methods had been used (including the one favored by Gore at the time of the Supreme Court decision), but that Gore might have won under other standards and scenarios. On December 9, the Court suspended the manual recount, in progress for only several hours, on the grounds that irreparable harm could befall Bush, according to a concurring opinion by Justice Antonin Scalia. This summary shows that there is a large difference between the CAGR for JPM dividends since 1973 and over the past 20 years in comparison to the 5 and 10 year CAGR. Florida's secretary of state, Katherine Harris, a Republican, then gave counties until 2:00p.m. on November 15 to provide reasons for recounting their ballots. Half of the overvotes in Duval County had one presidential candidate marked on each page, making their vote illegal under Florida law. Only a fourth of the variance consisted of optical ballots. The NORC adjusted its analysis for the Orange County results and a few minor differences by increasing the starting baseline vote total by 535 votes. The longstanding case law in Florida [ ] has held that the intent of the voters as shown by their ballots should be given effect. Spy Kids In times of exceptional uncertainty and risk (present economic conditions), it is beneficial to increase the return expectation as a way of factoring in a margin of safety. When Palm Beach County completed its recount two hours after the certification deadline, its final count was Gore 501 votes, Bush 327 votes excluded from the state certified total. USA Today, The Miami Herald, and Knight Ridder commissioned accounting firm BDO Seidman to count undervotes. Four counties distributed sample ballots to voters that differed from the actual ballot used on election day, including Duval County, which used a caterpillar ballot, so called because the list of presidential candidates stretched over two pages. The dividend data in this analysis was pulled from the JPM dividend history on the firms website (Figure 3). Figure 9. Figure 4. The simulation also showed a 77.6% probability for a positive integer meaning that it is a likely probability that JPM increases their dividend when considering their normalized historical trends. However, an overvote shall not occur when the elector casts a vote on the ballot card but then enters a sham or unqualified name in the write-in space for that same office. It won Outstanding Television Movie at the Primetime Emmy Awards, with Roach winning Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special, and Dern a Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actress Series, Miniseries or Television Film. Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. Orienting and understanding a Sensitivity Analysis is useful for investors to determine their ideal purchase price (Figure 11). The Palm Beach County recount and the Miami-Dade County recount (having been suspended) were still incomplete at 5:00p.m. on November 26, when Harris certified the statewide vote count with Bush ahead by 537 votes. These bearish markets provide ample opportunity for contrarian and long-term focused investors. SC00-2431, Albert Gore, Jr., and Joseph I. Lieberman, Appellants, vs. Katherine Harris, as Secretary, etc., et al., Appellees", "2000 Presidential Election - Handcount (00genhc.xls)", "Counting the vote: the overview; Bush is declared winner in Florida, but Gore vows to contest results", "Disputed Palm Beach ballots held potential gains for Gore", "General, Nonpartisan and Special Elections Recount; Miami-Dade County, Florida", "Statistical Practice: Reliability of the Uncertified Ballots in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida", "Newspapers' recount shows Bush prevailed", "Florida voter errors cost Gore the election", "Battlefield Florida: A Chat with Lance deHaven-Smith", How we got here: A timeline of the Florida recount, Video highlight of Florida Supreme Court Chief Justice Wells opening, Video highlights of November 20, 2000 and December 7, 2000 oral arguments in. [21] Additionally, this Florida election produced many more "overvotes" than usual, especially in predominantly African-American precincts in Duval County (Jacksonville), where some 21,000 ballots had multiple markings, such as two or more choices for president. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in the model input (Saltelli, 2002). The 1st United States Congress provided the detailed organization of a federal judiciary through the Judiciary Act of 1789.The Supreme Court, the country's highest judicial tribunal, was to sit in the nation's Capital and would initially be composed of a chief justice and five associate justices. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. The first half of the 1990s experienced a decrease in dividends followed by large variance in dividend growth rate eventually becoming more consistent until 2008. The same day, a state judge upheld that deadline but ruled that further recounts could be considered later. do not count any votes for the marked candidate (9): count votes for the punched candidate if the write-in is an uncertified person's name, On November 8, Florida Division of Elections staff prepared a press release for Secretary of State. 5.1 Sensitivity. [23], Political commentator and author Jeff Greenfield observed that the Republican operatives in Florida talked and acted like combat platoon sergeants in what one called "switchblade time", the biggest political fight of the century. 10. Compounded annual growth rate formula (Investopedia). 13. To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. Volusia County started its recount on November 12. Sensitivity Analysis. If the p-value becomes 0.03 under this scenario, then the results are robust. However, this form of analysis becomes ambiguous when the terms pessimistic and optimistic become subjective to the user and the levels considered are set as per the user. Gordon Growth Model formula (Investopedia). [79] Under the other standards used in the study, Bush's margin of victory increased as looser standards were used. [75][76], Based on the NORC review, the media group concluded that if the disputes over the validity of all the ballots in question had been consistently resolved and any uniform standard applied, the electoral result would have been reversed and Gore would have won by 60 to 171 votes (with, for each punch ballot, at least two of the three ballot reviewers' codes being in agreement). Mass cytometry time-of-flight (CyTOF) is a powerful technique to profile immune cells and could be applied to tumour detection. Cost-Benefit Analysis: A cost-benefit analysis is a process by which business decisions are analyzed. Officials in a majority of punch-card counties said they would accept a single-corner detached chad as an indicator of voter intent, and officials in a majority of optical scan counties said they would accept all affirmative marks as described in NORC codes as indicators of voter intent. The Florida recount was the subject of the 2008 television film Recount, which aired on HBO. Undervotes from punch-card counties give new votes to candidates in roughly the same proportion as the county's official vote.

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